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1. Prayer is not a “spare wheel” that you pull out when in trouble, but it is the “steering wheel” that directs the right path throughout life.
2. Why is a car’s windshield large and the rearview mirror so small? Because our past is not as important as our future. So, look ahead and move on.
3. Friendship is like a book. It takes a few minutes to burn, but it takes a long time to write.

4. All things in life are temporary. If things are going well, enjoy them; they will not last forever. If they are not going well, don’t worry, they won’t last long either.

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5. Old friends are gold, and new friends are diamonds. If you get a diamond, don’t forget that gold is needed to hold a diamond in place, as a base.

6. Often, when we lose hope and think this is the end, God smiles from above and says, “Relax, sweetheart; it’s just a bend, not the end.”

7. When God solves your problems, you have faith in His powers. When He doesn’t solve your problems, He has faith in your abilities.

8. A blind person once prayed to God: “Can there be anything worse than losing eyesight?” He replied, “Yes, losing your vision.”

9. When you pray for others, God listens to you and blesses them. And sometimes, when you are safe and happy, understand that someone has prayed for you.

10. Worrying does not take away tomorrow’s troubles; it takes away today’s peace.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this website are those of the individual authors and may not reflect the opinions of the site or its owners.

10 excellent narrations: Read and try to understand their deeper meanings

Invariably, from the year 2004, PIA, a loss-making public entity, started raising demands from the exchequer for financial support to relieve the burden of its rising debts.

In exchange, successive governments asked the cash-strapped airline to present its business plan, viz-à-viz restructuring plan, which might enable the airline to pay off its debts in due course by becoming profitable.

Each time, the borrowing, instead of helping the airline improve its financial ability to pay back, made the carrier’s performance further deteriorate in successive years, as no parameters for performance checks were put in place for the airline to assess its (board vs. management) level of seriousness and their ability to adhere to its business/restructuring plan and follow the timelines in letter and spirit.

To keep this loss-making, cash-strapped public entity afloat, the national exchequer has doled out billions of rupees from its funds.

At present, the lethargy of PIA (board and management) has brought it to the verge of collapse due to an unmanageable financial crisis, or simply put, serious cash flow problems, with liabilities as high as 743 billion PKR. This is five times more than the total assets of PIA.

Once again, following the historic borrowing methods adopted by PIA through its ministry, an MoA moved a summary on “financial support for PIA and its restructuring plan,” demanding 23 billion, which the government initially declined before deciding to pursue PIA’s expeditious sell-off.

Meanwhile, it approved a 14 billion bailout package without any performance check parameters or assessment of its ability to return the funds in the agreed time!

For the last twenty years, the government has been following a non-serious policy, especially regarding PIA:

1. On making this loss-making entity profitable with a one-time bailout package based on the business/restructuring plan presented by PIA’s management, duly approved by its board and finally vetted by its ministry, where the parameters for performance checks and reviews with timelines were never monitored or pursued rigorously and vigorously.
2. On seriously pursuing PIA’s privatization.

The government has always pursued the policy of “ahda teeter aadha batair” (half partridge, half quail).

With the choice between two options—privatization of PIA or restructuring with a bailout package—the government must act and proceed without any political or hidden agenda.

The concept of hiring foreign consultants to turn it into a going concern was planned and, at times, materialized, but not a single recommendation was put forward for deliberation or given importance for implementation.

At this juncture, with the airline burdened by a financial crunch to the tune of 743 billion PKR, it is necessary to estimate the value of privatization, i.e., the value of assets, which are around one-fifth of the financial load on the airline.

In economic terms, the government may recover one-fifth (1/5) as mentioned above, with four-fifths (4/5) of the liability remaining on the exchequer. On the contrary, the continuation of bailout packages may increase the liabilities fourfold.

Privatization of the sick entity is a hard and harsh solution, whereas restructuring is a softer solution. In restructuring, the only lapse is the fixation of responsibility.

Here, the exchequer, as the lender, while approving bailout packages, forgets the 5 C’s of credit:

1. Character
2. Capacity
3. Capital
4. Collateral
5. Conditions

Most importantly, the borrower in this case, PIA, and its level of responsibility and willingness to meet its obligations under the business or restructuring plan with conditions set by the lender (the government) must be emphasized.

The government must fix responsibility on:

1. The ministry, which vets the plan.
2. The board, which approves the plan.
3. The management, which prepares the plan.

A government monitoring plan is needed to review the airline’s progress, ability, and capacity in meeting all those parameters of success and profitability. Management should only be answerable to the board, the board to the ministry, and the ministry to ECC/CEC. Likewise, responsibility flows down the line.

Privatization may not yield better results (gain 1/5 and leave 4/5 of the liability with the government) than what can be achieved through a single bailout with conditions (liability remains 4/5), but the assets remain with the government, and the entity’s sickness can be removed through proper restructuring.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this website are those of the individual authors and may not reflect the opinions of the site or its owners.

Invariably from the year 2004 PIA ,a loss making public entity

“You can have flaws, be anxious and even be angry, but don’t forget that your life is the greatest business in the world. Only you can stop it from failure.

You are appreciated, admired and loved by many. Remember that being happy is not having a sky without storms, a road without accidents, a job without effort, relationships without disappointments.

“Being happy is to stop feeling a victim and become the author of your own destiny. It’s going through deserts, but being able to find an oasis deep in your soul.

It’s to thank God every morning for the miracle of life. It’s kissing your children, cuddling your parents, having poetic moments with your friends, even when they hurt us.

“To be happy is to let live the creature that lives in each of us, free, joyful and simple. It’s having maturity to be able to say: “I made mistakes”. Having the courage to say “I’m sorry”.

It’s having a sensitivity to say “I need you”. Is having the ability to say “I love you”. May your life become a garden of opportunities for happiness… that in spring I can be a lover of joy and in winter a lover of wisdom.

“And when you make a mistake, start over. Because only then will you fall in love with life. You will find that being happy doesn’t mean having a perfect life. But she uses tears to irrigate tolerance. Use your defeats to train your patience.

“Use your mistakes with the serenity of the sculptor. Use pain to tune into pleasure. Use obstacles to open the windows of intelligence. Never give up … Above all, never give up on the people that love you. Never give up on happiness, because life is an amazing show. “.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this website are those of the individual authors and may not reflect the opinions of the site or its owners.

Never give up on happiness, because life is an amazing show

An imprudent splurge of wasteful expenditure, and its splashing around on the political elite, has created a perennial yawning budgetary deficit of PKR 5-8 trillion every year against an annual budgetary outlay of PKR 14 to 18 trillion. It’s PKR 8.5 trillion this year. This extravaganza was initially filled by our pension funds and then by ruthless expensive domestic borrowing from commercial banks at 22%.
Now, recently, the government has borrowed PKR 3.2 trillion in 45 days from domestic banks at 22% interest rates.

The government has purchased $11.2 billion from this amount at today’s existing exchange rate. This is to pay off $27.4 billion as part of the $130.4 billion outstanding foreign debt. The payment of this installment is due by November 2024.

This external liability is besides the budgetary gap of PKR 8.5 trillion, which also needs to be covered during the current financial year.

I am concerned that there could be another assault on the banks to cover this liability. So far, domestic debt liability has soared up to PKR 39.657 trillion besides PSEs’ domestic borrowing of PKR 2.267 trillion.

According to budgetary estimates, projected revenue receipts have been booked at PKR 10.38 trillion. I wonder whether the government will ever be able to make it.

Even FBR failed to collect the PKR 9.4 trillion target and could only get PKR 9.3 trillion, i.e., short by PKR 100 billion. This time, things seem to be even worse.

In an elite capture revenue regime, we could only get negligible revenues, excluding indirect taxes collected at source by the organizations.

Elite Capture — Tax Revenue Receipts

1. Salaried people: PKR 326 billion
2. Businessmen: PKR 86 billion
3. Agriculture: PKR 4 billion

As per reports (DAWN Jun 22, 2024), “FBR spends Rs25 billion only on the salaries, allowances, and perks of its 18,332 employees every year.

Add to this the cost of electricity, buildings, fuel, vehicles, equipment, and numerous operating expenses, and the total may well exceed Rs 50 billion per year.

It operates with an armada of 1,244 government vehicles and an army of 975 drivers — entirely at the taxpayers’ expense. Its output could best be measured by the fact that only 1.8 per cent of people file tax returns and only 1 per cent pay any tax.”

This failure and tax avoidance take the state to easy ways like borrowing from the banks and begging around the globe. On top of that, nobody seems concerned about the circular debt liability of PKR 2.76 trillion on account of capacity charges of the IPPs.

This excessive borrowing has annihilated the banking sector and has left practically no credit available for industrial activity.

There is hardly any niche in running a business by investing capital at 22%, which practically goes up to 30%. Most of the large-scale manufacturing activity has already extinguished.

Since the government has no other source to finance its budgetary gap, commercial banks conveniently capitalize on their potential buyers and keep raising their interest rates.

One can safely presume that after three years, this huge liability is going to double, and that would exact a very heavy price to sustain.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Financial Mis-Management and Our Budgetary Gap

Finally in the Dock

Today’s drama in SCP between CJP and AG was more of a press conference than court proceedings. Only one judge among these seven could possibly write a dissenting note, and that will be none other than our worthy stooge, the CJP.

From a Government Commission to a Suo Moto to a seven-member Bench to Full Court is quite a journey in the span of two days.
The circumstances that are developing as a result of this Letter of Mar 25 could prove to be a non-starter for certain contemplated amendments for extending the term of office of CJP and others, etc.

The direction that this case could take in Full Court proceedings may bring the establishment, the government, and the judiciary to a round table. There is already a request filed for a three-member judicial commission to probe the matter. It does not suit the Establishment at all that a Commission of serving SCP judges should probe into the allegations of offenses committed in the past.

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This probe into allegations of accesses as mentioned in the IHC Judges’ letter could also lead to producing people concerned before the commission. Such exposure? No way. The Commission could also start probing into Forms 45 and 47 controversies and those behind, which is basically a national calamity. And that could prove catastrophic for both the Government and the Establishment.

It may not be possible to defy the orders to appear if issued by the Judicial Commission. Please appreciate that these six bright stars have literally pitched Judiciary against the Establishment. It is a fact, whether you like it or not.

There is a long list of accesses, and a lot has happened directly and indirectly under the auspices of the Establishment ever since mid-2021 till to date. Some of the major glaring events are:

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Extended governance beyond 90 days of caretakers in Punjab, KPK, and in the Center, Sind, and Balochistan; Flouting of SCP order to hold elections by May 14, 2023; May 09 events not being probed despite the request of the accused party.

That could be given due attention, and the Judicial Commission could look into it, which will open another Pandora’s box; Neutrality of the Caretakers could be another serious issue. Caretaker PM and CM being elected as independent Senators is highly questionable and shall point fingers towards the establishment.

This also invokes the principle, ‘clash of interest’; May 09 episode, which has not been probed despite repeated requests by the accused could figure in promptly; Recent Jail trials of political leaders will, in all probability, be brought up and contested strongly; Issues like the arrival of five SCP judges in their offices at midnight, the arrival of a prisoner van, and the arrival of CJ IHC at 10 PM in his office (now seemingly a belligerent Judge today), a deadline of 12 midnight seem like minor but obvious and serious issues; The conduct of Senate elections together with Forms 45/47 controversy are real hot topics.

Senate election of caretaker PM & CM and a few others as independents seem like a joke and a result of blatant maneuvering. It is not possible that the Judicial Commission if appointed could miss out on these controversies surrounding the elections; Last but not least, the recent jail trials of some political leaders together with the haste that these trials were conducted. Repeated arrests despite bail orders by courts will all have to be probed.

If the TORs of this Judicial Commission (if and when appointed) do not give it the liberty to look into the larger picture of interference and accesses, it will not do any good. We shall be back to where we were.

Legal brains like Barrister Aitzaz and a few others together with HC Bar Associations have already jumped into the case. It seems to me that this letter by six Justices on Mar 25 has put too much on establishment plate, which they may find hard to chew

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This letter was certainly not expected and it would prove to be the second rude shock after that popular street show across Pakistan and in the world capitals on that April Sunday following IK ouster in 2022. The ground reality is that while the electorate is already against the establishment, this letter has literally clipped their wings.

We all know that if it was not for the judiciary, the establishment would not have had this clout and its vast empire, where the joke is that “Pakistan was chalked out on DHA land”. It should be a very worrying moment for them because what establishment has on their side are the people who do not have any vote bank but were maneuvered in by the establishment. This weakness could turn the tables.

Political parties driven to wilderness are indicating at starting a people’s movement after Eid. With this in view, 29th April is the next date of hearing announced today may be a bit too far because if a movement builds up by that time, it will be an added pressure on SCP.

In case it boils down to a tripartite conference between, Judiciary, Government, and Establishment, it will not be restricted to interference in judicial matters only. It will involve a complete package, i.e., complete adherence to the provisions of the Constitution and the limits set by it.

The basic issue here is that if an Institution is working within the confines of the Constitution and the SCP being a custodian of the Constitution will have to look at the complete package and not just the issues faced by judicial officers. It would be a very bitter pill to swallow.

The law requires that those who have been involved in the harassment in the past should be brought to book as offenders, which will damage the establishment credentials further from its current low.

The Judicial Inquiry Commission will have to make appropriate suggestions to uphold the independence of Judiciary together with strict adherence to the Constitution. SCP will then have to act accordingly and pass necessary orders.

I think that tripartite arrangement (read bargain) will be that past misdeeds should not be probed. Consensus could develop that we need to move forward and follow the principle of the dichotomy of power as contained in the Constitution.

As for me, I feel that Establishment is in the dock after all. As for the Government, the least said is better. I see them destined to be orphans.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Game in Final Round: Interesting days ahead!

THE FINAL CHAPTER OF LIFE… Can’t even bend down to tie my shoelace again!

Most of us find ourselves in the latter stages of life, and it’s important to reflect on this insightful piece of advice. This article offers gentle reflections without delving into politics, religion, or racial issues – just pure food for thought.

Time has a peculiar way of slipping away, often catching us by surprise as the years fly by. It feels like just yesterday I was young, embarking on life’s journey. Yet, in other moments, it seems like eons ago, leaving me to ponder where all the years have vanished. Though I’ve lived through them all, memories of yesteryears, hopes, and dreams flicker in my mind.

Now, as I find myself in the final leg of my journey, it’s startling how swiftly time has passed. How did I arrive here so swiftly? Where did my youth vanish? I vividly recall observing older individuals throughout the years, believing their age was distant from mine. Yet, here I am, witnessing the signs of aging in myself and my peers, a realization that the fourth quarter of life has swiftly crept upon us.

Each day presents new challenges; simple tasks like showering become achievements, and napping isn’t a luxury but a necessity. As I navigate this new phase, I confront the reality of unfulfilled aspirations and the physical limitations hindering pursuits I once envisioned. Yet, amid regrets, there’s a sense of contentment for the experiences embraced and lessons learned.

For those not yet in the final quarter, let this serve as a reminder: time waits for none. Pursue your dreams, cherish your loved ones, and seize each moment with purpose. Life is a precious gift, and happiness lies in cherishing every moment.

Remember, true wealth lies not in material possessions but in health and relationships. Embrace the simplicity of life’s pleasures, find solace in nostalgia, and cherish the company of old friends.

So, whether you’re in the first quarter or the final, embrace each day with gratitude and live life to the fullest. After all, it’s not about what you accumulate but the impact you make and the memories you leave behind.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

The Final Leg/Quarter of Life

Brand Germany ;

Not too long ago, Germany faced its darkest days under Hitler and the Nazi regime. The nation’s image took a severe hit due to aggressive expansionism, militarism, and war crimes, leaving the country in disarray.

The once-proud “Brand Germany” became synonymous with evil, and the swastika symbol represented a dark chapter. The country eventually split into two, and only after Hitler’s demise did the downward spiral stop. In short, Brand Germany completely disintegrated.

Brand Pakistan ;

Post-elections, Pakistan is facing one of its worst PR nightmares, with rebuke pouring in from both the international and domestic fronts. Moody’s has given a “credit negative” signal to Pakistan in the face of prolonged political uncertainty and social unrest. Many think tanks have charged Pakistan with being an authoritative regime.

This is also going to make it tough to approach the IMF for the continuation of the current program and initiate a new one, especially as the IMF has indicated it will only talk to the elected one. The economic fallout can be clearly choreographed. Over the last few decades, Brand Pakistan has suffered immeasurably.

All Cure ;

Germany’s ills were not rectified until it changed its authoritarian policies and brought in a new political structure that prompted international cooperation and accelerated economic turnaround. Even the two parts of the country got reunited.

A quick fix to Pakistan’s political structure holds the key to unlocking its immense potential. With the right changes, Pakistan could emerge as one of the world’s leading economies.

Impact on Rupee ;

While analysts are citing political uncertainty to avoid forecasting any financial market rates, the currency market is deemed to be controlled. In such an environment, the view is that the Rupee will stay stable for the next two weeks, which is approximately when/if the new government takes charge. By that time, remittances due to Ramadan will help in keeping the Rupee stabilized. Also, the new government may not want to change the status quo of the ‘stable’ Rupee. It’s only after March that the impact of IMF negotiations (good or bad) and inflows from bilaterals & multilaterals will start to be felt. This will also be the US$ 1 billion repayment period.

Interestingly, interbank forex markets have been very lackluster during the last few days, with FIs not willing to take new or longer-term positions.

So, we see markets range-bound till March, but traders are cautioned that the political chaos may get dirtier.

US Inflation Surprises on the Upside ;

It was a beneficial week for the US dollar, which charged higher after data revealed US inflation is not cooling down as quickly as investors had hoped.

Solid economic growth, a tight labor market, and persistently high inflation are a cocktail that makes it very difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets have finally gotten the message. The timing of the first rate cut has been pushed out to June, while the market is now pricing in less than four cuts in total for 2024, down from six earlier.

With rate cuts getting priced out, the dollar has started to shine once again, gaining 3% already this year against a basket of currencies. It’s crucial to note that this is happening even despite the euphoria in the stock market. Positive risk sentiment is generally bad news for the dollar, which is considered a safe-haven asset.

This makes the dollar’s recent rally even more impressive. The reserve currency has started to realign itself with its robust economic fundamentals, and this process might have scope to continue since the market is still pricing in four rate cuts for this year, whereas the Fed has only signaled three.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

The Branding Paradox