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NAB recovers Rs 13 million from NFML officials

National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has recovered Rs 13 million from the officials of National Fertilizer Marketing Limited (NFML), a subsidiary of Industries Ministry and private parties involved in urea scam, well informed sources told Business Recorder.
The sources said former caretaker Federal Minster for Industries and Production, Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf had submitted an application with NAB and requested a thorough investigation into alleged massive malpractices in NIFL in transportation, stocks, distribution and weight of bags. Minister for Industries and Production, Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi and Secretary Industries, Shafqat Naghmi are well aware of the current status of NFML scam.

NAB investigators, sources said, had conducted raids on godowns at different locations and found massive irregularities in stocks. Officials of Ministry of Industries and Production were also questioned. It was also revealed from investigations that ‘a gang’ of NFML officials headed by a person from its Accounts Group were involved in fleecing transporters on the plea that this amount is being paid to the Minister and Secretary Ministry of Industries and Production. NAB had also been informed about dumping of around 400 MT of urea from Eminabad store of NFML. On May 2, 2013, Deputy General Manager (Distribution) Uzair Abu Bakar wrote a letter to the then Managing Director in which he accused a senior official of involvement in the scam.
On March 26, 2013, NMFL Store Incharge Multan, Waqar in a written application had admitted receiving 1208 sweeps mix and short weight urea bags. NFML had also accused Naeem Ullah- Naib Tehseeldar of being involved in the following activities under different names at different periods: (i) cartage contractor under the name of Rahat Goods Forwarding Agency;(ii) labour handling contractor at Karachi godowns under the name of Fazal Enterprises (iii) tally contractor under the name of Fazal enterprises; and (iv) quality Pakistan System Registrar (FMC-Pvt) Limited. The sources said there is no let-up in corruption in the organisation despite NAB’s actions.
“Corrupt elements have fixed prequalification rate of Rs 2 million for existing transporters and Rs 50 million for new transporters,” the sources continued. According to sources, NFML’s real players have also allowed urea dumping to their blue eyed parties. “Officials are receiving Rs 120 per bag as commission, of which, according to their claim Rs 100 per bag are for high-ups in the Ministry and Rs 20 for the NFML officials,” the sources continued.
The sources further claim that imported urea meant for poor farmers is also being supplied to a chemical factory in Karachi. Pakistan Kissan Ittehad has also lodged a complaint against NFML for not implementing urea distribution policy in letter and spirit. According to the policy, 70 percent urea will be sold through dealers’ network whereas 30 per cent is to be distributed to the farmers directly.
When contacted, former caretaker Minister for Industries and Production, Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf claimed that he had provided documentary evidence of plunder of the national exchequer to NAB. “I fought bravely with corrupt elements in the attached departments of MoI&P during my two months stay,” he continued. Minister for Industries and Production Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi also issued a press release a couple of weeks ago and claimed that he recovered millions of rupees from NFML transporters and directed the concerned department to deposit it in the official account. NAB spokesman told Business Recorder that case is in at inquiry stage and action will be taken all corrupt under the law. He is further stated that NAB investigation team has recovered total 7809 under weight urea bags from NFML godowns.

https://agrinfobank.com.pk/nab-recovers-rs-13-million-from-nfml-officials/

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Where is Rupee headed?

Most of my readers are asking, “Where is the Rupee headed, and how to trade it?” There is no doubt that USDPKR is headed below 280, but how low can it go and in what time frame?

Arguments for a stronger Rupee:

  1. The biggest clue is the mystery inflow in reserves. The fact that the reserves rose by about $1.2bn may not be as important as the source of these inflows. The inflow from untold sources indicates that Pakistan is still relevant in the global power lane. It also almost ensures that the IMF BoD will approve the upcoming tranche. And lastly, it also erodes the potential repercussions of whether elections will happen on time or not.
  2. Post IMF approval, inflows from multilaterals will become bigger and quicker.
  3. The trade deficit has narrowed to $1.7bn, thereby raising expectations of another month of the current account surplus. In addition to this, there is more inflow in SCRA related to PSX, indicating better liquidity levels.
  4. Pakistan’s major fight is against inflation. A stronger Rupee keeps price hike expectations checked. The government will want to continue this policy.
  5. SIFC decides to take action against smugglers, hoarders, and market manipulators. This too will keep a lid on price pressures and inflation.
  6. Secondary market bond yields have declined, indicating potential interest rate cuts by March ’24 amidst expectations that inflation will come down.
  7. If inflation trends lower in Jan, REER will be more or less contained.
  8. Pakistan’s CDS is consolidating to pre-crisis levels, and Euro bonds have rallied.
  9. Last week, we saw increased activity by exporters to sell dollars forward, mostly within the 60-day window, indicating the market’s view of Rupee stabilization.
  10. Lastly, Fed’s indication of cutting rates has mitigated liquidity and funding concerns of Emerging Markets.

The one big risk to Rupee is the increasingly turbulent Gaza conflict. Israel has suddenly raised the geopolitical stakes in the Middle East by the targeted assassination of Hamas’s de facto ambassador to Hezbollah, followed by twin suicide attacks on the funeral. Taking turns, Iran has now vowed to take revenge.

Conclusion:

Exporter concerns will cap the Rupee rally. We see the Rupee to test its highs of 277/$ before the end of this month.

US NFP data out:

The U.S. added 216,000 jobs in December. The growth surpassed the forecasts of many economists and exceeded November’s revised gain of 173,000. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2.7 million for all of 2023, with an average monthly gain of 225k jobs, much higher than the median expectation of 173k.

This has increased the uncertainty into what awaits in the year ahead, but there’s still a growing consensus building that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as soon as March this year.

Next week’s consumer inflation report for December (Jan. 11) may clarify expectations.

The dollar’s weakness comes after a strong start to the year as high expectations for a significant dovish shift by the Federal Reserve eased.

Investors have been a little more doubtful so far this week about whether the potential rate cuts will match the market’s high expectations. The market anticipates up to 160 basis points in cuts this year, double the Fed’s projection. Some investors feel that the market may be overestimating the rate cuts and are thus reversing their trades or taking profit on long-risk positions.

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

Where is Rupee headed?

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PM Kakar names Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf as federal minister

SLAMABAD – Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar has appointed Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf as federal minister in his cabinet.

The Prime Minister’s Office has sent a summary to the president in this regard.

“In terms of third provision to Article 224 (1A) of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the President is advised to appoint Mr Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf as Federal Minister in the caretaker cabinet,” reads the summary.

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Utility Stores Corporation

Another national asset of the government of Pakistan, is Utility Stores Corporation (USC). During my very short tenure as Interim former Federal Minister for Industries and Production, the USC has recorded Rs 750Million tax payment towards National exchequer, which is considered to be the highest in the recent past. Secondly, the sale has achieved all time.

  • Junior School:​​​Aitchision College Lahore
  • Higher School:​​​Pakistan Steel Cadet College Karachi (Sindh)

 

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Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM)

Pakistan Steel Mills, once recognized as one of the most profitable national asset, but unfortunately during 2008-2013, the organization is found to be almost bankrupt, dysfunctional, non-profitable entity. It was the time, when even the organization could not be able to pay the salaries of the staff due to lackluster and ill federal government policies. Due to the urgency of the matter, I immediately conducted an emergency meeting with the then Interim Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, and propose a comprehensive bailout package of 16 Billion Rupees to take out this sinking ship from crisis. The Prime Minister in principal agreed and gave approval for the proposal. Moreover, being Minister in-charge I had also proposed that Rs5 billion owed as interest on loans payable to the National Bank be waived in order to keep PSM financially stable. The actions immediately raise the market credibility of the national institution and put the organization back on track of profitability, which has never done in the recent past during five long years.

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Beaurucracy

Long time pending bureaucratic reforms must be addressed in line with local empowering at the District level. Addressing the issues of Education and Health, post 18thamendment for unified systems in consultation with all provinces with Federal Government to devise policy measures. Similar mechanism is need of the hour for Social Sector reforms to address the entire population no matter which government comes in. Generalize civil service must be replaced with specialized services and professionals to steer the national institutes at their best.

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Pakistan Debt

Total public debt was recorded at Rs35,207 billion at the end of March 2020 compared with Rs32,708 billion at the end of June 2019.

The size of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for 2020-21 is Rs 1,324 billion. Out of this, Rs 676 billion has been allocated to provinces.Federal PSDP has been estimated at Rs 650 billion, out of which Rs 418.7 billion for Federal Ministries/Divisions, Rs 100.4 billion for Corporations, Rs 3 billion for Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), Rs 7 billion for COVID responsive and other natural calamities programme. Pakistan’s total debt